In recent years, there has been some compelling evidence suggesting an increase in inflight turbulence incidents. While turbulence has always been a part of air travel, a study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters reveals a concerning trend.
The research indicates that the total annual duration of severe turbulence has risen by a significant 55% between 1979 and 2020. Notably, the surge in turbulence was particularly pronounced in the North Atlantic, with a staggering 75% increase in severe turbulence duration.
In recent months, a spate of inflight incidents involving encounters with unexpected regions of severe turbulence have been in reported.
In some instances, such as a recent British Airways incident over the Bay of Bengal, the severity has resulted in injuries to occupants and sometimes a decision to divert. So, how concerning is this apparent rise in inflight events?
Contributing Factors
Several factors could potentially explain this unsettling rise in turbulence encounters. One such factor is the impact of climate change.
Atmospheric Warming
As the Earth’s atmosphere warms, it influences various atmospheric patterns, including the jet stream. The jet stream, a powerful band of wind that flows high in the atmosphere, plays a crucial role in shaping weather patterns.
However, the warming of the atmosphere can lead to an increased instability in the jet stream, resulting in more frequent and intense turbulence.
In the photograph above: While orbiting over the Gulf of Alaska and moving toward the west coast of the United States, an astronaut aboard the International Space Station shot this panorama looking north into the snow-covered landscape of the Canadian Rockies.
A long cloud band slants across the image, left to right. Meteorologists think this may be the remnants of a jet stream cloud band. Such jet stream bands indicate the general position of these fast “rivers of air.”
Higher Cruising Altitudes
Another contributing factor could be the changing altitude at which aircraft are flying. With advancements in aviation technology, modern aircraft can operate at higher altitudes than ever before.
While flying at higher altitudes offers benefits such as fuel efficiency and reduced air traffic congestion, it also exposes aircraft to regions of the atmosphere where turbulence is more prevalent.
The interaction between the jet stream and these elevated flight paths might contribute to the observed increase in turbulence incidents.
Higher Air Traffic Numbers
Higher aircraft traffic numbers can also be a possible explanation of the apparent rise in inflight turbulence incidents. With more aircraft flying, there is naturally a greater chance that they will encounter turbulence. This is especially true in busy airspace, such as the North Atlantic.
However, it is important to note that there is no single explanation for the apparent rise in turbulence incidents. Climate change, jet stream changes, and other factors are also seen to be playing a role.
Incidents Remain Relatively Rare
Despite the growing concern surrounding inflight turbulence, it is essential to recognize that such incidents still remain relatively rare.
In fact, air travel safety has significantly improved over the past few decades. According to the National Safety Council, the probability of perishing in a commercial airline crash is approximately 1 in 11 million, highlighting the remarkable safety standards of modern aviation.
It is crucial for passengers to understand that turbulence, although unsettling, is typically not a direct threat to the structural integrity of an aircraft.
Commercial airplanes are designed and built to withstand turbulence encounters, ensuring the safety of passengers and crew members.
Pilots are trained to anticipate and navigate through turbulent areas, utilizing weather forecasts, sophisticated onboard instruments, and air traffic control communications.
Maintaining Cabin Safety Protocols
However, it is still advisable for passengers to adhere to safety protocols provided by the airline and flight crew during turbulence.
Keeping seatbelts securely fastened, following crew instructions, and avoiding standing or moving around the cabin can help minimize the risk of injuries.
Additionally, airlines continuously invest in research, technology, and pilot training to enhance turbulence detection and avoidance systems, further ensuring passenger well-being.
In conclusion, the evidence suggesting an increase in inflight turbulence incidents is a matter of concern for the aviation industry and passengers alike.
While factors such as climate change and higher flight altitudes may contribute to this trend, it is important to note that turbulence incidents remain relatively rare compared to the overall safety of air travel.
The aviation industry is committed to maintaining and improving passenger safety through rigorous training, advanced technology, and strict adherence to safety protocols.
By staying informed, following safety guidelines, and trusting in the expertise of pilots and crew members, passengers can continue to enjoy air travel with confidence and peace of mind.